This is the question that’s been going through my mind all this week. Whilst the leadership of the Conservative Party was battling ahead I felt like we still had time.
Time for what? As we aren’t in France yet this Brexit result has made our position precarious. When the results came in discussions were had about those nationals who had moved to other countries. Would they continue to maintain the rights granted to them? How would it affect their health costs, for example?
Although I think I answered a lot of that here, for us the scenario is different. We haven’t yet moved, although we’ve already given up our daughter’s school place (only the British can understand how significant that is) and rented our house as well as other things. As I’m writing today we’re only seven weeks away from our move.
I’ve become a news addict. Some have suggested that anyone who was living in the UK on June 23rd (and I would therefore imagine their counterparts in other European countries ) would definitely be allowed to stay without their conditions changing.
Then Andrea Leadsom was saying, in contrast to Theresa May and in keeping with what had been said by the Leave campaign, that those living in the UK when (if) she started her premiership in September would be allowed to stay.
Then, in this political period were events are steamrollering along, she was hounded out of the campaign for statements she made about motherhood. May has had her coronation. She is the PM. In the commons Cameron took his last Prime Minister’s questions. He was jovial, stating what he’d achieved and blithely ignoring his abject failure. People praised him. God this is an odd time in politics.
When I heard on Monday that Leadsom had withdrawn May’s repeated statements that she would offer no guarantees to European citizens living here kept ringing in my ears. If this is true for those living here, then what will be the case for UK citizens living abroad? Let alone about us. Do we risk moving at all?
I convinced myself that we would be OK – if we moved before article 50 had been triggered. Maybe.
Then I read that she may trigger article 50 straight away! The panick started to set in. Our chances of being badly affected by this were increasing minute by minute!
In the end I raised it with my husband. La Belle Fille finishes school this week, there’s nothing to keep us here. Let’s go! These few weeks could make all the difference! We argued about it. In the end he suggested us going ahead and him staying to do the decorating that nerfs doing be force oir tenants arrive. I got to the point where I telephoned my mother – can we come and stay with her?
I have now seen that David Davis has been appointed minister for Brexit. I have come across this that he has written previously in relation to Brexit;
“Single market access – and why we should take time before triggering Article 50.
This leaves the question of Single Market access. The ideal outcome, (and in my view the most likely, after a lot of wrangling) is continued tariff-free access. Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest. There may be some complexities about rules of origin and narrowly-based regulatory comipliance for exports into the EU, but that is all manageable.
But what if it they are irrational, as so many Remain-supporting commentators asserted they would be in the run up to the referendum?
This is one of the reasons for taking a little time before triggering Article 50. The negotiating strategy has to be properly designed, and there is some serious consultation to be done first. Constitutional propriety requires us to consult with the Scots, Welsh, and Northern Irish governments first, and common sense implies that we should consult with stakeholders like the City, CBI, TUC, small business bodies, the NFU, universities and research foundations and the like. None of them should have any sort of veto, but we should try to accommodate their concerns so long as it does not compromise the main aim. This whole process should be completed to allow triggering of Article 50 before or by the beginning of next year.”
I’m starting to breathe a bit easier again. The walls aren’t closing in quite as quickly. I’ve put down the phone to change our tickets. I’m going to phone our Conservative MP tomorrow and ask what is the most likely thing to happen. I’ll update you here if she has any answers. But to be honest in this political period who does?